There were some from the jsonline posting forum who appreciated the selections, so I'm going to give it a try again this year.  These are all plays that I have made, with small write up.  For the other gamblers out there, let me know if you have any game specific questions and I'll try to help.

Thursday, 8/28

Miami, Oh - 3 over Vanderbilt (Palms)

Vandy is going to find it tough to score against a defense that was ranked #2 in the MAC last year and returns 9 starters.  No clear starter has emerged at qb for vandy until tuesday of this week, so you have to question the rhythm of the offense.  Vandy returns only 3 offensive starters from last seasons team and no returning starters on the o-line.  Miami returns eight starters on offense including qb Raudabaugh who threw for 2500 yards in 8 games last year.  Vandy returns 6 defensive starters to a unit that yielded 14.4 yards per play in 2007.  An SEC team has not played in Oxford since 1920, so look for Miami to exert extra effort in order to notch a win over an SEC opponent

 Baylor/Wake Forest over 50 1/2 points (Bet Jamaica)

Totals are going to be a little tricky to begin the season due to the new 40 second clock rule.  I have this game rated at 62, and this looks like a major unlay by the house.  After averaging 18.2 ppg in 2007, Baylor brought in former UHouston coach Art Briles to lead the offense.  Baylor will be going with a run and shoot no huddle offense.  They return 9 starters on offense including qb blake szymanski who thew for over 2800 yards  The Bears only return six starters on a unit that was the worst in the Big 12 giving up 37 ppg and 12.2 yards per play.  Offensively, Wake Forest counters with do everything QB riley skinner and top rusher josh Adams.  This game will be played at an uptempo pace against two suspect defense.  A 14 point/quarter pace easily takes this one over the total

 I will post Saturday's selections on Friday evening.

For those of you wondering about my handicapping qualifications, I moved to Vegas in 1996 and began working for sportsfax news which was a supplementary linesmaking service.  We provided the lines for the Las Vegas Review Journal and serveral "east coast syndicates."  The company was purchased in 1999 and I remained on the oddsmaking team until 2001, when I joined with serveral other independent handicappers to create our own team.  Sports betting has been my "job" since then.  By no means will I give out all winners or state that I pick 90% winners.  I honestly try to grind out about a 60% win rate.  Hopefully I can provide some insight for those of you trying to get an edge with your locals so we can all share in the winnings.

 Good luck this season 

Split on Thursday.  Miami O was a bit overstated in my stat buildup.  Onto Saturday's Card

Michigan/Utah Under 40 1/2

Michigan brings one of the best defenses in the nation to this game, along with one of the most questionable offenses.  You can expect Rodriguez to run the ball alot and that grinds clock.  Utah is no slouch and should be up to the task to stop the Michigan run.  The team with the better D has the worst O and the team with the better O, has the lesser D.  Look to the under

UNLV/Utah State under 47 1/2

In 2007, Utah State ran the fewest number of plays in all of Division 1.  Average plays per team 67, Utah State, 55.  This is a team that grinds the clock to stay in the game.  UNLV is weak on offense, but brings a traditionally stout defensive unit.  The remnents of trop strom julio are due to hit las vegas early tomorrow afternoon, so wind and rain are a distinct possibility.  This should be a low scoring game

Boston College -10 over Kent State

Played at Browns stadium, this is a major underlay for a far superior team.  No home field advantage for kent.  BC lost qb ryan, but returns a majority of the offense intact. 

OK State - 7 over Wash State

Played at Seahawks stadium, we have a situation similar to the above game.  Wash state has a new coach and many new players across the o-line.  Ok state will score at will, and 7 seems a bit short.  Wazzu will not be able to score with the cowboys.

Wyoming - 12 1/2 over Ohio -

Game opened 9 and has been steadily bet up.  Teams who haven't played at altitude really struggle in the second half.  Look for Wyoming to pull away from a gassed bobcat team

Florida - 21 (first half) versus Hawaii

Game kicks off at 630am Hawaii time.  This team will be off it's rhythm early, and look for the gators to pour it on.  Florida has alot of injuries, so look for Meyer to pull players at h/t.  Put this game in the bank early and avoid the backdoor cover.

Opinion on Wisconsin game (not a play)  Lay the 26 1/2.  Akron's biggest deficit is there run defense.  Badgers will hammer away and this one will get away from the zips

Good Luck

Not bad today 4-2 in the saturday college picks, 5- 3 overall.  Big first quarter doomed the under in the michigan game, special teams blunders cost me the wyoming game.  Florida, Ok State and BC were easy.

One selection for Sunday - Colorado - 12 over Colorado St

Played in Denver, this game has traditionally been close.  The diffenerence in 2008 is that CSU has a new coaching staff and a new offensive scheme.  Colorado has high expectations this year with qb hawkins.  The buffs have seen steady improvement over the 3 years under coach Dan Hawkins, and the disparity in talent is just too great on sunday night.  This one should be a blowout.  lay the points with the buffs.

jimmythegreek:

Not bad today 4-2 in the saturday college picks, 5- 3 overall.  Big first quarter doomed the under in the michigan game, special teams blunders cost me the wyoming game.  Florida, Ok State and BC were easy.

One selection for Sunday - Colorado - 12 over Colorado St

Played in Denver, this game has traditionally been close.  The diffenerence in 2008 is that CSU has a new coaching staff and a new offensive scheme.  Colorado has high expectations this year with qb hawkins.  The buffs have seen steady improvement over the 3 years under coach Dan Hawkins, and the disparity in talent is just too great on sunday night.  This one should be a blowout.  lay the points with the buffs.

 

Nice win tonight, pushing the record to 6 - 3 overall.  I do like one game tomorrow.

Tennessee - 7 over UCLA (stations)

 Bet the game earlier today as the number has been drifting of the the key of 7 across the board.  This is more a play against UCLA than on UT.  The bruins are banged up at many skill positions and will find it tough sledding against an SEC defense.  QB injuries will play a role as UCLA will look to shorten the game by running the ball.  That will be a problem as the vols defensive strength is their front 7.  If the bruins can't muster a passing game, look for UT to stack the box and hold UCLA to a low team total output.  On the offensive side, UT returns 8 starters with new signal caller crompton taking the snaps.  The OL returns intact, so look for a dominant performance by the run unit.  UCLA only returns 5 on defense, and will struggle against the more experienced UT attack.  Look for the vols to pull away late, lay the 7