http://tigers-thoughts.blogspot.com/2008/08/projected-elias-rankings.html

The guy who has reverse-engineered the Elias rankings... still awaiting the final update... HOWEVER.

As of the last update, September 14th...  CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets are easilly Type A free agents, there is 4 1st/2nd round picks.

Brian Shouse (easily!) qualifies for Type B!!!  If he doesn't retire and signs with another team, we get a compensation round pick.  That could be our 5th.

Eric Gagne (holy flerging shiot, right?) might qualify for Type B.  Sept 14th he was the 2nd-last ranked Type B, with plenty of guys nipping at his heels.  That could be our 6th pick if he signs with another team.

Ray Durham could qualify for type B.  On Sept 14th, he wouldn't have (Rickie Weeks would be a type B if he were a free agent, however), but Durham played well in the final weeks of the season and could have moved up enough to qualify for Type B.  This is a long shot, but it could be #7.

Torres, Cameron, and Kendall all qualify for Type B as well, however if the Brewers decline their option then they aren't allowed to offer arbitration which means they cannot receive a compensation round pick for these players.  All 3 would likely qualify for Type B again next year if they can maintain their current level or production.

Nice.

As much Cameron hating that goes on around here, there is good reason why this team should pick up his option for next year.  Not only has he shown he can still be a .800 OPS centerfielder, which isn't exactly something that's easy to find, but he should also net the team a 2010 draft pick if he doesn't retire after '09.

My only worry is that I believe there's a deadline for which free agents must sign with a new team for his old team to be awarded compensation.  I'm not positive what that is, but now with Sheets' injury, it might be possible that teams will be scared away from him long enough for that deadline to pass.  I could be wrong, though (and hopefully on this, I am).

Seeing that Eric Gagne is possibly qualifying for type B is giving me an idea...  If the Elias rankings have truly been reverse engineered properly, this information could give a GM a HUGE advantage. 

The information could be exploited in the following way:

During the free agent signing period, a GM should look at the players who qualified for Type B at the upper end of the scale, preferably relief pitchers (unless you need stopgaps at SP or the positions).  Take your list of free agent players who qualified in the top 50% of the Type B, and cross off any player whose stats had regressed from the previous year.  This is done because Elias rankings factor in the previous 2 seasons and you want to find guys who are likely to qualify for Type B again the following year.  After doing this, you should have a list of free agents who qualified for Type B and are set up to qualify for Type B again the following year.  Take this list of players (hopefully 3-4 relief pitchers) and offer them at-or-above market 1-year contracts (like the Torres signing,but without the option).  This way you can retool your bullpen with quality relievers that you can expect to bring you a quality minor league player at the end of the year, which should be a good strategy given the unpredictable production patterns of relief pitchers. The GM should NOT include any team options in the contract, because that can prevent the player from bringing in compensation picks.  It's important to get Type B free agents and avoid Type A because if you sign a Type A free agent you have to give up a 1st/2nd round draft pick, but Type B costs no draft picks.

If you "retool" your bullpen every year by signing 1-3 of these "most likely to be Type B next year" guys, you'll have found a very innovative way to get more value out of your bullpen than any other GM in baseball.

Obviously you would have to filter your potential free agent pool on other factors as well, but I didn't want to make it any more complicated than it already is.

There is another way you could exploit this. A GM could acquire struggling rentals who he knows will qualify for Type B by trading prospects who were drafted in the late rounds (and still aren't good) to teams that are looking to "sell."  I think Ed Wade pulled one over on Kevin Towers when he traded him Chad Reineke for 1/2 a year of Randy Wolf and a compensation round draft pick.  Chad Reineke (13th round pick in 2004, average AAA pitcher) is not even close to as valuable as a compensation round draft pick, so I'm pretty sure that Towers was completely oblivious to the fact that Randy Wolf was a shoo-in for Type B.  Everyone acted like Ed Wade was mentally retarded when this trade went down, but Chad Reineke for a 2nd round pick is a steal without the 1/2 a year of Randy Wolf.

Enough with prospects...this team needs major league players now.

Since4/7/70:

Enough with prospects...this team needs major league players now.

Funny how every team in the major leagues is going the other way and starting to build from within.  Now you want the Brewers to drop that plan and spend all their money on major league ready players. Even the Yankees are getting away from doing that.

SeattlePilot:

Since4/7/70:

Enough with prospects...this team needs major league players now.

Funny how every team in the major leagues is going the other way and starting to build from within.  Now you want the Brewers to drop that plan and spend all their money on major league ready players. Even the Yankees are getting away from doing that.

But also, if the Brewers trade the likes of Fielder and Hardy, they'll get even more prospects.  Prospects are the currency of the majors now, and the Brewers seem to have a nice farm to produce them.

UWWhitewaterGrad:

SeattlePilot:

Since4/7/70:

Enough with prospects...this team needs major league players now.

Funny how every team in the major leagues is going the other way and starting to build from within.  Now you want the Brewers to drop that plan and spend all their money on major league ready players. Even the Yankees are getting away from doing that.

I think it's imporant to point out that to get major leaguers, most teams now have to trade for them.  Having around 18 1st/2nd round draft picks in the last two years and next year combined will help the Brewers make the current prospects dispensible because of these draft picks, I'm assuming 5-6 of them should be prospects that could push into the majors in 4-5 years, right about the time they'll be needed. 

But also, if the Brewers trade the likes of Fielder and Hardy, they'll get even more prospects.  Prospects are the currency of the majors now, and the Brewers seem to have a nice farm to produce them.

What about showing a little patience and see what all those prospects bring the Brewers the next bunch of years. The Brewers have a good thing going right now and if people would just hold on to their pants they could turn into a real powerhouse for many years to come.

SeattlePilot:

UWWhitewaterGrad:

SeattlePilot:

Since4/7/70:

Enough with prospects...this team needs major league players now.

Funny how every team in the major leagues is going the other way and starting to build from within.  Now you want the Brewers to drop that plan and spend all their money on major league ready players. Even the Yankees are getting away from doing that.

I think it's imporant to point out that to get major leaguers, most teams now have to trade for them.  Having around 18 1st/2nd round draft picks in the last two years and next year combined will help the Brewers make the current prospects dispensible because of these draft picks, I'm assuming 5-6 of them should be prospects that could push into the majors in 4-5 years, right about the time they'll be needed. 

But also, if the Brewers trade the likes of Fielder and Hardy, they'll get even more prospects.  Prospects are the currency of the majors now, and the Brewers seem to have a nice farm to produce them.

What about showing a little patience and see what all those prospects bring the Brewers the next bunch of years. The Brewers have a good thing going right now and if people would just hold on to their pants they could turn into a real powerhouse for many years to come.

I'm not saying just trade them like the stock market, but having the high draft picks adds to the options to acquire major league players, instead of drafting, the team can trade using quality trade bait to get better players.

mikeyjay21:

Nice.

 

As much Cameron hating that goes on around here, there is good reason why this team should pick up his option for next year.  Not only has he shown he can still be a .800 OPS centerfielder, which isn't exactly something that's easy to find, but he should also net the team a 2010 draft pick if he doesn't retire after '09.

My only worry is that I believe there's a deadline for which free agents must sign with a new team for his old team to be awarded compensation.  I'm not positive what that is, but now with Sheets' injury, it might be possible that teams will be scared away from him long enough for that deadline to pass.  I could be wrong, though (and hopefully on this, I am).

I'm pretty sure the deadline date is for a team to offer arbitration and still get the pick, when the player signs after he rejects arby doesn't matter. If the player signs somewhere before the deadline to offer arby (around the middle of December I believe) then the team gets the pick(s).

Excellent to hear from you, Matt.  Where have you been?  Joe's made an appearance this week as well - good to see some of the old-schoolers on the new board.

WiscoKing13:

I believe in terms of compensation you only get the picks, if a top 15 team signs him.

That's correct.

I don't think it's very good business sense to sign an old player for ten million just so you can get a compensation pick. That ten mil can be better spent on pitching and then let the Brewers fill the position spots in with their young players.

....Unless you would like to see a Brady Clark, back in CF, I'm willing to take my chance with Cam. Tell me another player who has bee a LOT MORE  productive for the Crew in Sept. and during the NLDS........................................................................................................

 I'm Waiting!

WiscoKing13:

I believe in terms of compensation you only get the picks, if a top 15 team signs him.

Not true. If a top 15 team signs a type A guy, the team losing the FA gets a sandwich pick and a 2nd round pick. If the signing team is in the bottom 15 (of the draft board) then it's a 1st and a sandwich pick. Type A free agents get 2 picks back. Always.