I'll stick to Brewers stuff.  His next few chats should be interesting since he's scouting the Arizona Fall League.

Karl, Baltimore: Do you know when Matusz is supposed to make his first AFL appearance?

 Keith Law: I think it's Saturday. I'll definitely be there. Jeremy Jeffress goes tonight in Peoria for anyone in the area. I'm curious whether the radar gun can penetrate the haze.

The Brewers are playing for the Peoria Javelinas.   

Jeffress: 3 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 4 K, 1 BB 

Ben: (Columbus): Hey Keith...Thoughts on Michael Brantley and how does he finalize the Sabathia trade in your book?

 Keith Law: Fourth outfielder. With Bryson having shoulder surgery, this is probably coming to shake out as just Sabathia for LaPorta.

Nick (Toronto): Of Sabathia, Burnett, Lowe and Sheets, who do you think gets the most reasonable contract?

 Keith Law: Sheets is in a different class - he's going to go at a discount because of the injury, so he'll get less money and fewer years, which will look like a steal if he turns out to be healthy. After that, Lowe. 

Chris (Milwaukee): There are a ton of Brewers fans up here clamoring for CC's return. Can you please tell them that his deal may be realistic for a year or two, but after that a contract of that size would sink a smaller market team like the Brewers?

 Keith Law: Too much risk for a team with that level of payroll. I wonder where the Brewers go from here; their rotation for 2009 is Gallardo, Parra, Bush, Suppan, Villanueva. That's not going a 90-win team there, and other than maybe Jeffress - who has, um, issues of his own - is there a potential impact SP in the system? I think their second-best pitching prospect is probably Jake Odorizzi, who is 18 and 4 or 5 years off. 

badger80:

Chris (Milwaukee): There are a ton of Brewers fans up here clamoring for CC's return. Can you please tell them that his deal may be realistic for a year or two, but after that a contract of that size would sink a smaller market team like the Brewers?

 Keith Law: Too much risk for a team with that level of payroll. I wonder where the Brewers go from here; their rotation for 2009 is Gallardo, Parra, Bush, Suppan, Villanueva. That's not going a 90-win team there, and other than maybe Jeffress - who has, um, issues of his own - is there a potential impact SP in the system? I think their second-best pitching prospect is probably Jake Odorizzi, who is 18 and 4 or 5 years off. 

There's no doubt in my mind that Melvin does not want to re-sign Sabathia, simply because he knows it would not be a good deal for the Crew long-term.  But part of me is concerned that Attanasio intends to at least make a very competitive offer for him - especially after how they got burned over a measly $4 million for Cordero last year.  I think Mark may be willing to shovel out more money than he should to keep Sabathia in Milwaukee.

badger80:

 Keith Law: Too much risk for a team with that level of payroll. I wonder where the Brewers go from here; their rotation for 2009 is Gallardo, Parra, Bush, Suppan, Villanueva. That's not going a 90-win team there, and other than maybe Jeffress - who has, um, issues of his own - is there a potential impact SP in the system? I think their second-best pitching prospect is probably Jake Odorizzi, who is 18 and 4 or 5 years off. 

Yep.  This is why I believe the Brewers need to hold fast in 2009 and see what happends.  Use 2009 to allow for players like Weeks, Braun, Fielder and Hart (and maybe even Hall) to progress.  Use 2009 to prepare Gallardo's arm for 200+ innings in 2010 and to groom our massively talented farm system into more polished players.

We need to do what the Twins did this year after losing Santana.  Don't do anything you'll regret later and just see how things play out.  If everything is going right in July then you can look to make a few small moves to stay competetive throughout the rest of the season.  If it doesn't work out, the Brewers will be set up to be very competetive in 2010 and beyond. 

There is no reason to risk 2010-2015 trying to win it all in 2009, we already have the playoff monkey off of our backs.

badger80:

 Keith Law: Too much risk for a team with that level of payroll. I wonder where the Brewers go from here; their rotation for 2009 is Gallardo, Parra, Bush, Suppan, Villanueva. That's not going a 90-win team there, and other than maybe Jeffress - who has, um, issues of his own - is there a potential impact SP in the system? I think their second-best pitching prospect is probably Jake Odorizzi, who is 18 and 4 or 5 years off. 

Unfortunately, I think a lot of people are missing what is underlying in this answer.

The Milwaukee Brewers do not have a lot of help in the near future as far as starting pitchers go.  Jeffress is about it.  After that the best SP that could help next season is either Lindsay Gulin or maybe Brae Wright.  Yeah...that's how bad it is...

mikeyjay21:

There's no doubt in my mind that Melvin does not want to re-sign Sabathia, simply because he knows it would not be a good deal for the Crew long-term.  But part of me is concerned that Attanasio intends to at least make a very competitive offer for him - especially after how they got burned over a measly $4 million for Cordero last year.  I think Mark may be willing to shovel out more money than he should to keep Sabathia in Milwaukee.

Yeah...  I worry about that too.  I worry that MA is going to try to be a Mark Cuban type owner. 

Mark Cuban is a fvcking idiot.  He builds the Mavericks like he is playing a video game.  He thinks that if he has 5 guys who used to average 30 pts a game then his team will score 150 pts a game instead of getting pissed at each other because there aren't enough shots to go around. 

I really hope MA doesn't start doing crap like that.  I think the baseball equivalent of that would be building a team full of guys who can't field their positions but hit pretty well and spending too much money on pitchers who are big on "name" but declining on "production."

MrQuestions:

Yeah...  I worry about that too.  I worry that MA is going to try to be a Mark Cuban type owner. 

Mark Cuban is a fvcking idiot.  He builds the Mavericks like he is playing a video game.  He thinks that if he has 5 guys who used to average 30 pts a game then his team will score 150 pts a game instead of getting pissed at each other because there aren't enough shots to go around. 

I really hope MA doesn't start doing crap like that.  I think the baseball equivalent of that would be building a team full of guys who can't field their positions but hit pretty well and spending too much money on pitchers who are big on "name" but declining on "production."

I don't think that you have to worry about MA.  MA is a traditional, college trained businessman.  He has a lawyer's mantality with his business sense, and the last thing he would want to do is risk any damage to the never ending money flow of this team.  Putting a winner on the field equals big cash for this man, and he know, through experience, that no winner equals no sell outs which equals no money for him. 

Cuban is a hack of a business man.  An IT nerd who was lucky enough to escape from the IT bubble burst without losing his business.  There is nothing traditional about him, and I am sure he has little working knowledge of the science behind business plans and budgeting practices.  Cuban owns teams for a hobby, MA owns this team to win a Chapionship...no more, no less!!!!

MA attended Brown and got his JD from Columbia.  Cuban went to Indiana at Bloomington and got his BA in Business Admin.

Cuban got lucky in the IT world while MA was using his brain and dual degrees to start a successful Investement Firm.  The two are as far apart as can possibly be, and Mark cares a great deal about his legacy in Major League Baseball.  Your fears will never be realized, in my opinion.

MrQuestions:

Yep.  This is why I believe the Brewers need to hold fast in 2009 and see what happends.  Use 2009 to allow for players like Weeks, Braun, Fielder and Hart (and maybe even Hall) to progress.  Use 2009 to prepare Gallardo's arm for 200+ innings in 2010 and to groom our massively talented farm system into more polished players.

We need to do what the Twins did this year after losing Santana.  Don't do anything you'll regret later and just see how things play out.  If everything is going right in July then you can look to make a few small moves to stay competetive throughout the rest of the season.  If it doesn't work out, the Brewers will be set up to be very competetive in 2010 and beyond. 

There is no reason to risk 2010-2015 trying to win it all in 2009, we already have the playoff monkey off of our backs.

There are ways to still let the main core stay put AND make an improvement that shouldn't hurt the current team with the traded pieces.  I do think that they shouldn't spend too much money in FA. That could hurt the team.

Greg Brock......Who?:

MrQuestions:

Yeah...  I worry about that too.  I worry that MA is going to try to be a Mark Cuban type owner. 

Mark Cuban is a fvcking idiot.  He builds the Mavericks like he is playing a video game.  He thinks that if he has 5 guys who used to average 30 pts a game then his team will score 150 pts a game instead of getting pissed at each other because there aren't enough shots to go around. 

I really hope MA doesn't start doing crap like that.  I think the baseball equivalent of that would be building a team full of guys who can't field their positions but hit pretty well and spending too much money on pitchers who are big on "name" but declining on "production."

I don't think that you have to worry about MA.  MA is a traditional, college trained businessman.  He has a lawyer's mantality with his business sense, and the last thing he would want to do is risk any damage to the never ending money flow of this team.  Putting a winner on the field equals big cash for this man, and he know, through experience, that no winner equals no sell outs which equals no money for him. 

Cuban is a hack of a business man.  An IT nerd who was lucky enough to escape from the IT bubble burst without losing his business.  There is nothing traditional about him, and I am sure he has little working knowledge of the science behind business plans and budgeting practices.  Cuban owns teams for a hobby, MA owns this team to win a Chapionship...no more, no less!!!!

MA attended Brown and got his JD from Columbia.  Cuban went to Indiana at Bloomington and got his BA in Business Admin.

Cuban got lucky in the IT world while MA was using his brain and dual degrees to start a successful Investement Firm.  The two are as far apart as can possibly be, and Mark cares a great deal about his legacy in Major League Baseball.  Your fears will never be realized, in my opinion.

He recognizes how CC launched the excitement for this team into the stratosphere.  He has seen how well Sabathia can sell seats.  He understands that, along with Fielder and Braun, Sabathia gives this team another nationally marketable player.  He knows that in any given year, his two biggest sluggers should compete for the MVP and Sabathia should pitch like a Cy Young.  And he also realizes that this team is dangerously close to being able to making a strong post-season run.

So I can definately see Mark willing to take this chance with this player.  He has seen how important this one employee has been for his business, and he may ultimately decide to pay up to keep him.  At the very least, it has to be an incredibly tough decision for him.

Jim Breen:

badger80:

 Keith Law: Too much risk for a team with that level of payroll. I wonder where the Brewers go from here; their rotation for 2009 is Gallardo, Parra, Bush, Suppan, Villanueva. That's not going a 90-win team there, and other than maybe Jeffress - who has, um, issues of his own - is there a potential impact SP in the system? I think their second-best pitching prospect is probably Jake Odorizzi, who is 18 and 4 or 5 years off. 

 

Unfortunately, I think a lot of people are missing what is underlying in this answer.

The Milwaukee Brewers do not have a lot of help in the near future as far as starting pitchers go.  Jeffress is about it.  After that the best SP that could help next season is either Lindsay Gulin or maybe Brae Wright.  Yeah...that's how bad it is...

Greg Brock......Who?:

Cuban is a hack of a business man.

Yeah, that just can't be true as a general statement.

mikeyjay21:

Jim Breen:

badger80:

 Keith Law: Too much risk for a team with that level of payroll. I wonder where the Brewers go from here; their rotation for 2009 is Gallardo, Parra, Bush, Suppan, Villanueva. That's not going a 90-win team there, and other than maybe Jeffress - who has, um, issues of his own - is there a potential impact SP in the system? I think their second-best pitching prospect is probably Jake Odorizzi, who is 18 and 4 or 5 years off. 

 

Unfortunately, I think a lot of people are missing what is underlying in this answer.

The Milwaukee Brewers do not have a lot of help in the near future as far as starting pitchers go.  Jeffress is about it.  After that the best SP that could help next season is either Lindsay Gulin or maybe Brae Wright.  Yeah...that's how bad it is...

And that could be the ultimate key to whether or not they end up doing what it takes to keep Sabathia here.  This team is close, and Sabathia goes a long way to fixing the rotation for the forseeable future.  It would be quite a task to try to fix the rotation while getting the team back to the post-season when the chance is still there, and that includes 2010 and 2011.

Mikey, if they sign Sabathia, even at a cheap rate of $20 million per, how will they afford to keep any other player? As stated in another thread, they have almost $70 million tied up in salaries in 2009 already for 17 players. CC would take you to $90 million (last year's payroll). You would still need to sign 7 more players to fill out the roster. Even at the minimum, you're looking at a $95 million payroll. Signing CC would almost assuredly mean trading Fielder and not for anyone that could help us in '09. You'd have to trade him for prospects.

So, at what cost would you keep Sabathia?

MrQuestions:

Mark Cuban is a fvcking idiot.  He builds the Mavericks like he is playing a video game.  He thinks that if he has 5 guys who used to average 30 pts a game then his team will score 150 pts a game instead of getting pissed at each other because there aren't enough shots to go around. 

Baseball is different.

If you put together a lineup of guys who hit 30 HRs per year - then they will 270 HRs.  They don't have to share, there's no time limit.

If you have a rotation of guys who throw only shutouts - then you're going to throw 162 shutouts.

There's no such thing in baseball as having too many good players.  Too many egos perhaps, but not too many good players.

If MA had the amount of money that Cuban did, I would want him to sign Sabathia.

brewguru:

Mikey, if they sign Sabathia, even at a cheap rate of $20 million per, how will they afford to keep any other player? As stated in another thread, they have almost $70 million tied up in salaries in 2009 already for 17 players. CC would take you to $90 million (last year's payroll). You would still need to sign 7 more players to fill out the roster. Even at the minimum, you're looking at a $95 million payroll. Signing CC would almost assuredly mean trading Fielder and not for anyone that could help us in '09. You'd have to trade him for prospects.

So, at what cost would you keep Sabathia?

 Since when is graduating from Indiana-Bloomington with a graduate degree an insult?

ike1024:

MrQuestions:

Mark Cuban is a fvcking idiot.  He builds the Mavericks like he is playing a video game.  He thinks that if he has 5 guys who used to average 30 pts a game then his team will score 150 pts a game instead of getting pissed at each other because there aren't enough shots to go around. 

Baseball is different.

If you put together a lineup of guys who hit 30 HRs per year - then they will 270 HRs.  They don't have to share, there's no time limit.

If you have a rotation of guys who throw only shutouts - then you're going to throw 162 shutouts.

There's no such thing in baseball as having too many good players.  Too many egos perhaps, but not too many good players.

If MA had the amount of money that Cuban did, I would want him to sign Sabathia.

I know baseball is different, that's why I said this in my post:

'I think the baseball equivalent of that would be building a team full of guys who can't field their positions but hit pretty well and spending too much money on pitchers who are big on "name" but declining on "production."'

:)