Igniter, I really do see your point. I need to wrap my mind around what a defensive replacement for Prince's 2009 production would look like.

The trouble is, even though his defense is still bad (just as bad or worse than 2008), his offense is significantly better, meaning that the aggregate product he's providing at 1B is still rather valuable.

For those of you that liked the lineup approach here it is

Weeks 2B

Hardy/Escobar SS

Braun- LF

LaRoche 1B

McGehee/Gamel 3B

Hart/Gamel RF

CF-????/Cameron?/Ankiel?/proceeds from a Hart, Hardy or Escobar trade

Salome/Kendall?? C 

Pitching

Gallardo/Bush/Looper/Suppan/Parra

Mid season pitching would include Bumgarner, Alderson for whoever gets injured or is ineffective

2010 pitching

Gallardo/Bush/Bumgarner/Alderson/Parra

Plus the Brewers would still have a lot of overstock to fill other holes.  Buster Posey,Salome or LuCroy could be moved.  2 of Hart, Hardy, Escobar, or Gamel could be moved.  Looper, Suppan or Bush could be moved as a deadline deal.  Plus this roster would run ridiculously cheap after the 2010 season so the Brewers could add some major FA's.  It would be close to a blow it up approach but the Brewers would be far from starting over and they would still contend for the 2010 season while really strengthening their position in the future.

 BTW, this isn't meant to be a deathblow to the discussion or anything, but y'all might be surprised to know that Adam LaRoche is also pretty bad at defense.

Why would anyone who yearns for consistency want Adam LaRoche on their team.  Isn't he about as streaky as they get?

radio silence:

 BTW, this isn't meant to be a deathblow to the discussion or anything, but y'all might be surprised to know that Adam LaRoche is also pretty bad at defense.

 I don't think it is a death blow.  It is just part of the after effects of the deal.  There are other players you can go after and I would say he is closer to average at defense at 1B.  I wouldn't really consider him a long term solution to the position rather a stop gap.  As a 2-3 year stop gap, I think he would be more than fine.

Also I didn't make these trades in order to be fair but rather to show that if a godfather package was offered for Prince.  The Brewers should look at it and definitely think about it.  However the Red Sox and the Giants would definitely think about these types of trades. 

badger80:

The problem with these root trades that plan out an entire course of action is that there are too many variables.  One thing doesn't happen and the rest of it falls apart.  You can make a lot of money flipping houses, but it's a risky business when the market bottoms out.

That wasn't my point at all.  The reason I brought up a course of action is to lay out possibilities with the $10 million.  I originally brought up a Adam Dunn type signing.  Well that got interpretted as signing Adam Dunn so I brought up Adam LaRoche. Another stopgap option could be Nick Johnson.  It doesn't have to be a singular course of action. 

The_Igniter:

 I don't think it is a death blow.  It is just part of the after effects of the deal.  There are other players you can go after and I would say he is closer to average at defense at 1B.  I wouldn't really consider him a long term solution to the position rather a stop gap.  As a 2-3 year stop gap, I think he would be more than fine.

Just for kicks:

LaRoche (career): -4.8 UZR / 150, 9.9 RF / 9

Fielder (career): -9.4 UZR / 150, 9.3 RF / 9

So, basically, every 3 games, LaRoche records 2 more putouts or assists than Prince at first, and reaches more balls.

However:

LaRoche (career, 2926 PA): .272/.341/.491, 5.8 RC / G

Fielder (career, 2443 PA): .283/.379/.544, 7.5 RC / G

A LaRoche type player would be less below-average on defense, but would leave a lot lacking on offense. 

For reference, average 1B production in 2009 NL is .279/.369/.482

Also I didn't make these trades in order to be fair but rather to show that if a godfather package was offered for Prince.  The Brewers should look at it and definitely think about it.  However the Red Sox and the Giants would definitely think about these types of trades. 

I think it's certainly a fair point to bring up on your part.

As always, it's an issue of measuring variables.

radio silence:

I will say this: 2008 Prince, I probably say "yes" to the trade. 2009 Prince, I say no. 

If this is the way Prince is shaping up to play as a hitter, I gladly keep him as long as he wants to stay and let him produce.

Couldn't have said it better myself.

Why we would want to give up the 2nd best pure hitter in the NL is beyond me completely.  When it comes contract time for FIelder, Im sure a myriad of options will be waived in DMs face... and all of them will be positive. 

radio silence:

Just for kicks:

LaRoche (career): -4.8 UZR / 150, 9.9 RF / 9

Fielder (career): -9.4 UZR / 150, 9.3 RF / 9

So, basically, every 3 games, LaRoche records 2 more putouts or assists than Prince at first, and reaches more balls.

However:

LaRoche (career, 2926 PA): .272/.341/.491, 5.8 RC / G

Fielder (career, 2443 PA): .283/.379/.544, 7.5 RC / G

A LaRoche type player would be less below-average on defense, but would leave a lot lacking on offense. 

For reference, average 1B production in 2009 NL is .279/.369/.482

Yeah but that is why Fielder would be so marketable rather than just going the Free Agent route.   Do the high level high upside pitching prospects make up for that loss?  That is the question.  I think it is.  I don't think trading Prince should be universally dismissed.  Look to lock him up (which is highly unlikely).  If he doesn't want to talk terms of a short to medium length extension quietly look at what the trade market is.  If somebody is willing to empty their cupboards the Brewers should definitely look at it.

The_Igniter:

Yeah but that is why Fielder would be so marketable rather than just going the Free Agent route.   Do the high level high upside pitching prospects make up for that loss?  That is the question.  I think it is. 

I go back and forth on that.

Are runs prevented beyond league average comparable to runs produced beyond league average? I have no doubt that the runs differential could shift in positive ways with better pitching, but what happens to the Brewers' batting order as an aggregate should they lose their best left-handed bat, arguably their most disciplined bat, and one of their best power bats?

Also, what's the effect in the clubhouse on the other youngsters, losing one of their friends and core members of this young squad?

I really do go back and forth on weighing all of those aspects against the pure runs differential. Really difficult to do. 

My short answer is that, yes, if there was a high upside pitcher that actually performed to his upside plus slightly better defense at 1B, then the Brewers' run differential probably has a chance to withstand the loss of Fielder (simply isolating those aspects).

But, when you flip the deal around and look at the macro-level of the offense, and the fact that these are not simply aggergated individual performances, I am not sure how exactly to measure the loss of Prince Fielder from the batting order (replaced with even average left-handed 1B production).

 BTW, I am now hoping that the Crew convinces Boras that Fielder is one of his clients that should sign a very short extension. There are a couple of Boras clients that have signed such deals (cf. Carlos Pena and Matt Holliday, I believe), and so I am wondering about Prince signing something like a 2-year, $30 million deal; or, maybe replace his 2010 contract with a 3/$45 deal. Trade $6 million in 2010 for a year of free agency....

The_Igniter:

Here is another hypothetical trade for those that didn't like the first trade.

To the Giants for

Baseball America's #9 prospect Madison Bumgarner: will start the season at AAA next year at 20 years old, Lefty, 1.7 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 43 K's 15 BBs in 8 starts and 9 games at AA plus he has 5 starts at high A with a 1.48 ERA.

#14 overall prospect Buster Posey, C,  22 years old and in High A ball with a .950 OPS.  He will probably be moving to AA before the season ends and be in the majors by the middle of next year

Tim Alderson 20 year old AA pitcher 2.36 ERA in 50 innings and 9 stats.  He also has some time in high A this season. 

Thomas Neal 21 year old High A LFer with a 1.018 OPS this season.

Again this trade would take place after the season and Most if not all of these guys will start next season at the AAA level.   Buster Posey has enough trade Value that he could probably be sent off for another high end prospect, prospects or young players if we believe in our catching situation.

Then with the money saved by not paying Fielder the Brewers could again go after Adam LaRoche. 

Again I am not saying the Brewers should ship off Fielder no matter what.  I am saying options should definitely be explored and if they run accross a trade that makes sense the Brewers should go for it.  If the Brewers could get the top pitching prospect in all of the minors after the year, the top catching prospect in all of the minors after the year, another potential middle of the rotation arm and a high upside bat, the trade should be thought about very hard and I would do it.

No way he gives up that kind of talent for 2+ years of Prince.

radio silence:

 BTW, I am now hoping that the Crew convinces Boras that Fielder is one of his clients that should sign a very short extension. There are a couple of Boras clients that have signed such deals (cf. Carlos Pena and Matt Holliday, I believe), and so I am wondering about Prince signing something like a 2-year, $30 million deal; or, maybe replace his 2010 contract with a 3/$45 deal. Trade $6 million in 2010 for a year of free agency....

Boras loves to take guys who made the bigs @ a young age to the FA market ASAP. It's a longstanding trend with him, because he knows he can get the big/long deal and set the market with those guys. Prince fits right into that group, where Pena and Holliday didn't.

radio silence:

Also, what's the effect in the clubhouse on the other youngsters, losing one of their friends and core members of this young squad? 

I really do go back and forth on weighing all of those aspects against the pure runs differential. Really difficult to do. 

My short answer is that, yes, if there was a high upside pitcher that actually performed to his upside plus slightly better defense at 1B, then the Brewers' run differential probably has a chance to withstand the loss of Fielder (simply isolating those aspects).

Yeah it would be tough losing the leader of the clubhouse.  Especially with Cameron's contract up.  Someone would definitely need to step up in that regard.  I didn't really factor that in.  I was just thinking about having cheap controlable arms at the back end of the rotation for a while instead of having to waste a lot of our payroll on finding average production from the starting pitcher spot.  Then if any of these guys came around to produce up to their potential it would be real nice to have good starting pitching. While yes, I am looking forward to watching Prince for the next 2.5 years what happens after that?  Many of these prospects I am talking about would still be making the minimum and hopefully producing up to expectations.  Plus the Brewers with so many players making the minimum it would open up the Brewers to add more players through either Free Agency or adding salary through trade.

If the Brewers didn't want to add LaRoche, they could go a different route moving Gamel to 1B like a lot of people wanted to do last offseason and add somewhere else.