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Bill James 2010 projections

Last post 11-06-2009 1:40 PM by Analogkid. 82 replies.
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  • 11-01-2009 11:14 PM

    Bill James 2010 projections

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    I can't find the actual link to them, but Brew Crew Ball posted partial projections for the Brewers. Here's a quick rundown of what they are.

    Rickie Weeks 425 AB .259/.357/.449/.806 16 HR 48 RBI 80 R

    Felipe Lopez 565 AB .281/.352/.400/.752 10 HR 58 RBI 78 R

    Craig Counsell 342 AB .246/.337/.327/.664 3 HR 25 RBI 45 R

    Alcides Escobar 504 AB .288/.326/.377/.701 5 HR 48 RBI 75 R 42/54 SB

    JJ Hardy 528 AB .254/.320/.422/.742 19 HR 68 RBI 70 R

    Ryan Braun 615 AB .315/.378/.593/.971 39 HR 119 RBI 112 R

    Prince Fielder 601 AB .286/.393/.574/.967 44 HR 124 RBI 103 R

    Casey McGehee 492 AB .272/.328/.429/.757 15 HR 76 RBI 63 R

    Mat Gamel 455 AB .277/.354/.464/.818 17 HR 73 RBI 65 R

    Mike Cameron 561 AB .237/.328/.428/.756 23 HR 74 RBI 79 R

    Corey Hart 533 AB .277/.332/.467/.799 19 HR 76 RBI 78 R

    Frank Cattalanotto 110 AB .273/.380/.418/.798 2 HR 12 RBI 14 R

    Jody Gerut 162 AB .259/.326/.420/.746 5 HR 20 RBI 23 R

    Jason Kendall 409 AB .254/.338/.320/.658 2 HR 35 RBI 43 R

    Angel Salome 240 AB .296/.345/.442/.787 6 HR 39 RBI 30 R

    I don't really know what to make of these projections.

  • 11-02-2009 8:15 AM In reply to

    Re: Bill James 2010 projections

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    James always has rosey predictions for young players.  I'd say those are all best case scenario for Escobar, Gamel and Salome.  I like ZiPS Projections at Baseball Think Factory.  Those are usually pretty accurate.

    Baseball is a game of the long season, of relentless and gradual averaging-out. Irrelevance—since the reference point of most individual games is remote and statistical—always threatens its interest, which can be maintained not by the occasional heroics that sportswriters feed upon but by players who always care; who care, that is to say, about themselves and their art. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, he is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.

  • 11-02-2009 9:41 AM In reply to

    Re: Bill James 2010 projections

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    badger80:

    James always has rosey predictions for young players.  I'd say those are all best case scenario for Escobar, Gamel and Salome.  I like ZiPS Projections at Baseball Think Factory.  Those are usually pretty accurate.

     

    The CHONE projections are also extremely solid.

    Check out my blog...

  • 11-02-2009 9:49 AM In reply to

    Re: Bill James 2010 projections

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    Jim Breen:

    badger80:

    James always has rosey predictions for young players.  I'd say those are all best case scenario for Escobar, Gamel and Salome.  I like ZiPS Projections at Baseball Think Factory.  Those are usually pretty accurate.

     

    The CHONE projections are also extremely solid.

    It's good to read through CHONE, ZiPS, Bill James, Minor League Ball and Baseball Prospectus.
    Baseball is a game of the long season, of relentless and gradual averaging-out. Irrelevance—since the reference point of most individual games is remote and statistical—always threatens its interest, which can be maintained not by the occasional heroics that sportswriters feed upon but by players who always care; who care, that is to say, about themselves and their art. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, he is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.

  • 11-02-2009 9:55 AM In reply to

    • wisblue
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    Re: Bill James 2010 projections

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    At first glance, and without trying to translate the individual numbers to team totals, if all these porojections came true, a starting lineup of Braun, Cameron, Hart, McGehee, Escobar (or Hardy), Weeks, Fielder, and a catcher who breathes would be pretty productive.

  • 11-02-2009 10:03 AM In reply to

    Re: Bill James 2010 projections

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    Yikes!  He has Escobar getting on base more than Hardy.

    Baseball is a game of the long season, of relentless and gradual averaging-out. Irrelevance—since the reference point of most individual games is remote and statistical—always threatens its interest, which can be maintained not by the occasional heroics that sportswriters feed upon but by players who always care; who care, that is to say, about themselves and their art. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, he is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.

  • 11-02-2009 11:26 AM In reply to

    Re: Bill James 2010 projections

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    badger80:

    Yikes!  He has Escobar getting on base more than Hardy.

    Sometimes I think he projects huge years from young players so he can say, "I called it when..."
    Check out my blog...

  • 11-02-2009 11:29 AM In reply to

    Re: Bill James 2010 projections

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    badger80:

    Yikes!  He has Escobar getting on base more than Hardy.

    I'm not too surprised.  Hardy's never been a big OBP guy.  His value is his power.

  • 11-02-2009 11:53 AM In reply to

    Re: Bill James 2010 projections

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    Jim Breen:
    badger80:

    Yikes!  He has Escobar getting on base more than Hardy.

    Sometimes I think he projects huge years from young players so he can say, "I called it when..."
    His projections favor youth and upside.  I trust James' prediction the least of all those groups.
    Baseball is a game of the long season, of relentless and gradual averaging-out. Irrelevance—since the reference point of most individual games is remote and statistical—always threatens its interest, which can be maintained not by the occasional heroics that sportswriters feed upon but by players who always care; who care, that is to say, about themselves and their art. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, he is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.

  • 11-02-2009 11:54 AM In reply to

    Re: Bill James 2010 projections

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    badger80:

    James always has rosey predictions for young players.  I'd say those are all best case scenario for Escobar, Gamel and Salome.  I like ZiPS Projections at Baseball Think Factory.  Those are usually pretty accurate.

     

    For sure on Gamel and Salome, with those numbers Salome would be a top offensive catcher in the NL, and Gamel would be a very solid 3B (were he to play there).

    Escobar's numbers are pretty similar to what he put up this year.

    2009: .304/.333/.368/.701

    Predicted 2010: .288/.326/.377/.701 5 HR 48 RBI 75 R 42/54 SB

    The SB seems a bit high for me, I don't see him stealing 42 this year if they run like they did last year, but avg/obp/slg are very similar, and ops is the exact same. 

  • 11-02-2009 12:28 PM In reply to

    Re: Bill James 2010 projections

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    BenderTheOffender:

    badger80:

    James always has rosey predictions for young players.  I'd say those are all best case scenario for Escobar, Gamel and Salome.  I like ZiPS Projections at Baseball Think Factory.  Those are usually pretty accurate.

     

    For sure on Gamel and Salome, with those numbers Salome would be a top offensive catcher in the NL, and Gamel would be a very solid 3B (were he to play there).

    Escobar's numbers are pretty similar to what he put up this year.

    2009: .304/.333/.368/.701

    Predicted 2010: .288/.326/.377/.701 5 HR 48 RBI 75 R 42/54 SB

    The SB seems a bit high for me, I don't see him stealing 42 this year if they run like they did last year, but avg/obp/slg are very similar, and ops is the exact same. 

    +1

    I don't think Escobar's projection is best case at all.

    "Skip Bayless' mother has a different opinion on what the biggest mistake in history was....." - Six Pack Nads

  • 11-02-2009 12:29 PM In reply to

    Re: Bill James 2010 projections

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     If those are accurate then the crew will win 90 games with serviceable pitching.

  • 11-02-2009 12:52 PM In reply to

    Re: Bill James 2010 projections

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    BenderTheOffender:

    badger80:

    James always has rosey predictions for young players.  I'd say those are all best case scenario for Escobar, Gamel and Salome.  I like ZiPS Projections at Baseball Think Factory.  Those are usually pretty accurate.

     

    For sure on Gamel and Salome, with those numbers Salome would be a top offensive catcher in the NL, and Gamel would be a very solid 3B (were he to play there).

    Escobar's numbers are pretty similar to what he put up this year.

    2009: .304/.333/.368/.701

    Predicted 2010: .288/.326/.377/.701 5 HR 48 RBI 75 R 42/54 SB

    The SB seems a bit high for me, I don't see him stealing 42 this year if they run like they did last year, but avg/obp/slg are very similar, and ops is the exact same. 

    He had 134 PA, so let's not go calling Escobar's final line is "2009 numbers." He's shown growth in the minors with OBPs between .350-.360 the last two seasons, but he has yet to show an ability to lay off pitches out of the zone or hit with much power.
    Baseball is a game of the long season, of relentless and gradual averaging-out. Irrelevance—since the reference point of most individual games is remote and statistical—always threatens its interest, which can be maintained not by the occasional heroics that sportswriters feed upon but by players who always care; who care, that is to say, about themselves and their art. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, he is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.

  • 11-02-2009 1:13 PM In reply to

    Re: Bill James 2010 projections

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    badger80:
    He's shown growth in the minors with OBPs between .350-.360 the last two seasons, but he has yet to show an ability to lay off pitches out of the zone or hit with much power.

    That's fine, which is why .288/.326 makes sense.  I honestly think it's ridiculous to call those numbers best case scenario.

    "Skip Bayless' mother has a different opinion on what the biggest mistake in history was....." - Six Pack Nads

  • 11-02-2009 1:20 PM In reply to

    Re: Bill James 2010 projections

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    ike1024:

    badger80:
    He's shown growth in the minors with OBPs between .350-.360 the last two seasons, but he has yet to show an ability to lay off pitches out of the zone or hit with much power.

    That's fine, which is why .288/.326 makes sense.  I honestly think it's ridiculous to call those numbers best case scenario.

    He hasn't shown the hitting skills yet to carry those numbers.  He could hit that well, but I am not going to count on it.  I think .250/.300 is a little more reasonable.
    Baseball is a game of the long season, of relentless and gradual averaging-out. Irrelevance—since the reference point of most individual games is remote and statistical—always threatens its interest, which can be maintained not by the occasional heroics that sportswriters feed upon but by players who always care; who care, that is to say, about themselves and their art. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, he is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
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