badger80:

He hasn't shown the hitting skills yet to carry those numbers.  He could hit that well, but I am not going to count on it.

Except that everything he has done in his career (playing young at every level) contradicts that.

You clearly can't be using his numbers from the past two seasons to project, because you'd be wrong, so you have to just be using your own personal scouting report. 

ike1024:

badger80:

He hasn't shown the hitting skills yet to carry those numbers.  He could hit that well, but I am not going to count on it.

Except that everything he has done in his career (playing young at every level) contradicts that.

You clearly can't be using his numbers from the past two seasons to project, because you'd be wrong, so you have to just be using your own personal scouting report. 

It's the scouting reports of others and how those skill translate to the major leagues.  He doesn't have a good batting eye (even using his 2009 major league stats) and he doesn't hit for power.  Without at least one of those two skills, it will be a difficult transition to the big leagues.

I'm not saying that he'll flame out and won't be a good player at some point, it's just that the learning curve will be steep for a 24 year-old.  I know from reading James' projections that he tends to project young players higher than they ought to be.  His projections like upside.

ike1024:

badger80:

He hasn't shown the hitting skills yet to carry those numbers.  He could hit that well, but I am not going to count on it.

Except that everything he has done in his career (playing young at every level) contradicts that.

You clearly can't be using his numbers from the past two seasons to project, because you'd be wrong, so you have to just be using your own personal scouting report. 

I believe he's using the scouting reports of guys like Keith Law, John Sickels and (to an extent) Baseball America to say that.

Also, be careful about simply translating minor league numbers to major league numbers, because it's not that simple. You're right though, to say that his numbers would at least somewhat support those numbers this year (though I haven't looked at the exact translations) because they probably are somewhat close.

Einsteinhood:

Also, be careful about simply translating minor league numbers to major league numbers, because it's not that simple.

Yeah, I understand that, but with his BB% going up and his OBP pretty consistent the past two seasons at a young age in AA/AAA, I don't think the projections are best case scenario at .320.

Einsteinhood:

You're right though, to say that his numbers would at least somewhat support those numbers this year (though I haven't looked at the exact translations) because they probably are somewhat close.

That's all I'm saying.  You have to be awful to produce at .300, and I think he has shown a good enough eye and bat to be around .320.  All I'm saying is that .320 is not a best case scenario.

I'm not saying these are the only projections worth looking at. These were just the first ones I saw perusing other Brewers forums/Blogs. I thought it would make for an interesting discussion instead of rehashing the same argument with brewerfanx.

badger80:

It's the scouting reports of others and how those skill translate to the major leagues. 

I understand that, but he has already shown that he can put up a .320 OBP.  I'm not saying that he won't go .250/.300, but I don't think .290/.320 is best case by any means.

If so, then his last 140 ABs of last season was better than best case, and that doesn't make a lot of sense, does it?

Does anyone have Bill james 2009 predictions and compare those to what actually happened.

ike1024:

badger80:

It's the scouting reports of others and how those skill translate to the major leagues. 

I understand that, but he has already shown that he can put up a .320 OBP.  I'm not saying that he won't go .250/.300, but I don't think .290/.320 is best case by any means.

If so, then his last 140 ABs of last season was better than best case, and that doesn't make a lot of sense, does it?

His last 140 ABs were 140 ABs.  Take those results with a grain of salt.  He didn't have enough time in the majors to go through the swing of 600+ PAs.  You're looking at a very small sample size and assuming that he'd maintain the production after facing teams multiple times.  You're wrong to assume that Escobar has proven that her can put up a .320 OBP.  The kid has talent, but he just that...a kid.  The biggest jump in competition is from AAA to the major leagues.  He hasn't even lost his rookie eligibility yet.

willie key:

Does anyone have Bill james 2009 predictions and compare those to what actually happened.

What would you like to see?  All of the different projections are on FanGraphs, but I think you need to look at each player individually.  I haven't found a way to sort by team.

badger80:

ike1024:

badger80:

It's the scouting reports of others and how those skill translate to the major leagues. 

I understand that, but he has already shown that he can put up a .320 OBP.  I'm not saying that he won't go .250/.300, but I don't think .290/.320 is best case by any means.

If so, then his last 140 ABs of last season was better than best case, and that doesn't make a lot of sense, does it?

His last 140 ABs were 140 ABs.  Take those results with a grain of salt.  He didn't have enough time in the majors to go through the swing of 600+ PAs.  You're looking at a very small sample size and assuming that he'd maintain the production after facing teams multiple times.  You're wrong to assume that Escobar has proven that her can put up a .320 OBP.  The kid has talent, but he just that...a kid.  The biggest jump in competition is from AAA to the major leagues.  He hasn't even lost his rookie eligibility yet.

You can keep quoting small sample size, but I can quote AA at age 21, AAA at age 22, and ML at age 22 to prove my point.

You can't point to anything of actual substance to back up your guess of .250/.300.  All you're doing is assuming based some scouting reports, but those scouting reports haven't changed and Escobar has outproduced what those people have projected based on those scouting reports at those levels.

Prince Fielder 2009:

Bill James: .281/.379/.545 - 40 HR, 35 2B, 84BB, 128 K

CHONE: .286/.388/.555 - 36 HR, 30 2B, 79 BB, 114 K

ZiPS: .285/.388/.569 - 44 HR, 33 2B, 91 BB, 127 K

Actual: .299/.412/.602 - 46 HR, 35 2B, 110 BB, 138 K

Ryan Braun 2009:

Bill James: .310/.364/.620 - 44 HR, 43 2B, 46 BB, 117 K

CHONE: .294/.351/.556 - 32 HR, 33 2B, 41 BB, 111 K

ZiPS: .306/.358/.620 - 45 HR, 39 2B, 45 BB, 123 K

Actual: .320/.386/.551 - 32 HR, 39 2B, 57 BB, 121 K

Mike Cameron 2009:

Bill James: .237/.325/.434 - 24 HR, 32 2B, 67 BB, 173 K

CHONE: .240/.331/.436 - 21 HR, 25 2B, 60 BB, 138 K

ZiPS: .246/.33/.446 - 19 HR, 30 2B, 57 BB, 132 K

Actual: .250/.342/.452 - 24 HR, 32 2B, 75 BB, 156 K

 I'm just wondering why James' has Braun and Fielder declining in production.  They didn't do anything ridiculous to get the numbers they produced.  That's a pretty decent drop in OBP for Prince.

It's just interesting to see that for guys who are approaching the peak of their careers.

badger80:

Mike Cameron 2009:

Bill James: .237/.325/.434 - 24 HR, 32 2B, 67 BB, 173 K

CHONE: .240/.331/.436 - 21 HR, 25 2B, 60 BB, 138 K

ZiPS: .246/.33/.446 - 19 HR, 30 2B, 57 BB, 132 K

Actual: .250/.342/.452 - 24 HR, 32 2B, 75 BB, 156 K

If Cameron exceeds James' projection like he did last year, I'll take him as the Brewers' CF over any FA or inhouse option.