radio silence:

Braun seems to be selectively putting more balls in play just to hit

I think this is an incorrect statement.  He's not trying to put more balls into play by swinging at more pitches.  He's taking more pitches and letting more quality pitches go by because it's somewhat of a natural progression from a free-swinger to a more patient hitter.  It's very logical to think that with the improved BB% that he'll continue making improvements on pitch selection.  Improved pitch selection means he'll not only take more pitches (which is only a fraction of the equation) but he'll swing at the good pitches, too. 

I think the increase in BABIP is a testemant to him not swinging at garbage like he did in '08.  However, he swill was swinging at pitches that weren't "his pitches" because he would let a lot of those go by earlier in the count.  If he's swinging at more balls that are hittable, he'll put more balls in play.  By swinging at less balls that are out of his hitting zone (different than the strike zone), he'll hit balls harder.  More imrovement from that will result in more improvement in SLG.  Perhaps maybe not more HR's (although I believe it will) but more xBH.

Now, don't mistake my opinion for thinking he'll have the same approach and results as Prince, far from it.  But I do think that he can bring that SLG up a lot more than you two let on because his patience and pitch selection are improving.

 I think that's a fair position. I don't doubt that his SLG can improve, I'm really just following his current trends, and seeing what's interesting.

Braun is a very fun hitter to follow for his bizarre combination of trends.

This article was linked by Rob Neyer today, and it's an evaluation of the various projection systems. It seems to confirm what Jim Breen was saying earlier about CHONE being one of the best projection systems going.

 The ZiPS projections for the Brewers haven't been published yet, but the ZiPS projection for Escobar is 279/321/373, so while the James-branded system is known for being optimistic, it's not necessarily so in this case.

DJSzymborski:

 The ZiPS projections for the Brewers haven't been published yet, but the ZiPS projection for Escobar is 279/321/373, so while the James-branded system is known for being optimistic, it's not necessarily so in this case.

The spelling of the last name is kind of a security feature in this regard.  I also would think that if someone wanted to impersonate a baseball quant, impersonating Nate would be more lucrative!

DJSzymborski:

The spelling of the last name is kind of a security feature in this regard.  I also would think that if someone wanted to impersonate a baseball quant, impersonating Nate would be more lucrative!

 Probably won't get to the Brewers until well into December (I went in alphabetical team nickname last year and reversing it this year).  If there are any that people are really curious about, I never have an issue running some projections early.

I'd like to see a Gallardo projection.

Rickie Weeks was a completely different hitter this year for a month before he got hurt.  How much does the 162 PA before his injury change things?  You had him around .240/.340/.400 going into 2009.

 Thanks for the info!  I look forward to seeing projections for the rest of the team.

What makes up the differences between ZiPs, CHONE, etc?  Does each one hold certain stats/skills to a different level of emphasis?  Do they all have a persons (or goup) opinion that creates the projections? 

DJSzymborski:

For Gallardo, ZiPS has him at 12-7, 3.50 (ERA+ of 122) in 154.1 innings (the playing time no doubt from the missed time from the ACL tear).  ZiPS really likes Gallardo long-term.

TheDude:

What makes up the differences between ZiPs, CHONE, etc?  Does each one hold certain stats/skills to a different level of emphasis?  Do they all have a persons (or goup) opinion that creates the projections? 

They come from different sources.

TheDude:

DJSzymborski:

For Gallardo, ZiPS has him at 12-7, 3.50 (ERA+ of 122) in 154.1 innings (the playing time no doubt from the missed time from the ACL tear).  ZiPS really likes Gallardo long-term.

If a player misses time from the previous year and heals well enough, that player is still projected to throw less IP?

The way I think of it is (and Dan can correct me if I'm wrong) that if you were to take 100 identical Gallardos and run them through a season, this is sort of what an average performance would be. The way these systems work is they take the statistical inputs and compare to past performances, so you're going to end up with something like that where the IP guess reflects more of a middle ground than anything else.