I have seen many people claiming the Brewers have a ton of money to go after free agent starting pitching now that Hardy was traded.  People say the old payroll was $80 million last year and we lost Cameron, Hardy, and Kendall so now we have 19 odd million to spend on starting pitching.  I hate this argument.  So I have decided to put together the payroll for the Brewers going into next season with educated guesses for arbitration.

So here we go

Definite Salaries 

Jeff Suppan                     12.5 Million

Prince Fielder                  11.0 Million (10.5 million plus likely .5 million bonus for 500 PA)

Trevor Hoffman                  7.5 Million

Bill Hall                            7.15 Million

David Riske                      4.5 Million

Ryan Braun                      1.3 Million

Yovanni Gallardo                 .45 Million

Manny Parra                       .45 Million

Casey McGehee                 .45 Million

Mitch Stetter                       .45 Million

Alcides Escobar                  .45 Million

Weathers Buy Out               .40 Million

9 definite roster spots         46.6 Million

Arbitration Eligible (arbitration spots are guess based on prior year awards)

Carlos Gomez                   1 Million  (based off of Jeremy Reed and Melky Cabrera)

Dave Bush                         4 Million (I am just going off last season, I don't see him getting much of a raise and I can't find a good comp)

Corey Hart                         4 Million (2008 Xavier Nady)

Rickie Weeks                    3 Million (I really don't know how to deal with the injury, this is an educated guess.  I would bet that it won't be more than 3.5 million and it could possibly be as low as last season 2.4 Million)

Mike Rivera                        .7 Million  (Humberto Quintero)

Jody Gerut                         1.75 Million (Hard to get a comp for someone that had as lousy a year as Gerut coming off a very good year, Hard to believe it will be off by more than .25 Million either way)

Seth McClung                    1.7 Million (Again Hard comp but should not get to much of a raise and would be difficult to give him a pay cut)

Carlos Villanueva                 .8 Million (Coffey)

Todd Coffey                         1.7 Million (2008 Juan Cruz)

Total possible                  18.65

I would say Dave Bush and McClung are maybes .  So let's say 13 Million.

Options

Braden Looper                    1 Million (6.75 Million to keep him)

Probables on the Roster

Narveson                           .45 Million

DiFelice                             .45 Million

Gamel                               .45 Million

Salome                             .45 Million

                                        1.7 Million

 So Overall, the Brewers have 46.6 Million tied up in 9 definite players another 13 million tied up in 7 more pretty good arbitration locks, 1.7 million in 4 players likely to be on the roster and 1 million in options.  I didn't think the picture would look this rosy but it looks like we have 20 players on the roster with a $62.3 million payroll. With Bush possibly adding another 4 million, Looper adding another 5.75 Million and McClung adding another 1.7 Million that would push payroll to about $74 million with 23 spots.  So while the Brewers have a little wiggle room if they decline arbitration on players they don't have much if they retain Looper, Bush, and McClung at expected pay levels.

And before anyone starts bashing my arbitration numbers, I did this last year in October and was pretty close http://community.sportsbubbler.com/forums/t/62277.aspx?PageIndex=1 .  Yes I was high on Weeks and low on Fielder (nailed the high and the low didn't think about the extension). So lets save the song and the dance, these arbitration numbers won't be right on but I would be willing to bet the 18.65 million figure is within 2 million either way so it is probably good enough for what we are doing. 

Anyways with the players I have listed the Brewers would be in need of 2 starting pitchers (rotation currently consisting of Gallardo, Parra, Suppan), 1 backup Middle infielder (infield currently consists of Fielder, Weeks, Escobar, McGehee, and Gamel), 1 backup Outfielder (outfield consists of Braun, Gomez, Gerut, Hart) and 1 Reliever (Hoffman, Coffey, Villanueva, Stetter, Narveson, and DiFelice currently on the roster) with Salome and Rivera rounding out the catching ranks and roster.

Go to work.  You have about 17.7 million to fill in 5 positions  given the Brewers stick with about an 80 million payroll.

The_Igniter:

Go to work.  You have about 17.7 million to fill in 5 positions  given the Brewers stick with about an 80 million payroll.

I thought their payroll could reach $90mil and did in '08. If that's true and you're basing your assumption incorrectly (I'm not sure you're incorrect or not), then they have $10 mil more than what you project them to have available.  That's a pretty big difference.

This will likely be the last full year Prince Fielder plays in Mke.  Part of me wishes that management up the payroll to the $95-100M range, even if that means operating at a loss, just to give this team a fighting chance this year.  Removing Hall and Suppan from the books after next year will be a huge relief for the payroll.

Great work, Igniter.

TheDude:

The_Igniter:

Go to work.  You have about 17.7 million to fill in 5 positions  given the Brewers stick with about an 80 million payroll.

I thought their payroll could reach $90mil and did in '08. If that's true and you're basing your assumption incorrectly (I'm not sure you're incorrect or not), then they have $10 mil more than what you project them to have available.  That's a pretty big difference.

It was a throw away line. I said based on an $80 million payroll.  Mark A could probably have a $100 million payroll if he didn't want to line his pockets as one of the most profitable owners in Baseball for a season. 

Basically I laid out exactly what the Brewers have for Payroll obligations for a single season and gave a definitive number instead of guess work subtracting salary slots of players that are not here any longer.  Then saying hey they have $15 million to spend because Cameron and Hardy left. 

The Brewers have $62 Million in payroll with some pretty big holes to fill.   

radio silence:

Great work, Igniter.

Thanks

As everyone knew they need major help in the rotation with 1 definitive spot (Gallardo), 1 probobly but we wish we didn't (Suppan), 1 Hope to god he rebounds (Parra) and 1 Dark Horse (Narveson).  Without a bump in payroll,  Looper, McClung and Bush cannot be brought back unless we bring back pretty much the exact same team minus Cameron, Hardy, Kendall, and Lopez.  Then again Looper, Bush and McClung might be able to be brought back at a lesser figure if they are not offered arbitration (option not picked up) and they are brought back at a lesser number

I think the Brewers would be best off playing the numbers game and just sign players hope they rebound but overall throw numbers at the problem and piggyback certain players (Suppan, Parra, Narveson) this would mitigate the risk of one of the lesser pitchers flaming out by passing the risk over a number of players. 

 Thanks for the research.

I guess the only points I would quibble with are the overall payroll (I expect it to be over 85 to open the year) and the chances that Dave Bush won't be offered arby (I think it's going to happen unless the Brewers are concerned about his health and know something we don't in that regard).

Einsteinhood:

I expect it to be over 85 to open the year

Mark A during the last three years has stated that he's okay with going to 90+ million.  I believe in 08 they exceeded $90 mil after getting CC and Durham. 

To the previous guy who said Mark A could go to 100 mil and not line his pockets... well, he could go to 90-95 and still make some good coin.

TheDude:

Einsteinhood:

I expect it to be over 85 to open the year

Mark A during the last three years has stated that he's okay with going to 90+ million.  I believe in 08 they exceeded $90 mil after getting CC and Durham. 

To the previous guy who said Mark A could go to 100 mil and not line his pockets... well, he could go to 90-95 and still make some good coin.

Last year they talked quite a bit about the need to leave room to add payroll.

I think the basic assumption goes that if they open the year with an 85 million dollar payroll, they are planning on at least approaching 90 by the end of the season without adding major pieces. Remember, when a guy goes on the DL you pay them and then you pay their replacement. You're also certain to make a few pickups for minor money at some point in the season and at least one trade or two if you're anywhere near contention.

From what they said, they plan all of that when they look at an opening day payroll, and then leave open the option of adding serious payroll should the need/opportunity arise.

TheEraser:

This will likely be the last full year Prince Fielder plays in Mke.  Part of me wishes that management up the payroll to the $95-100M range, even if that means operating at a loss, just to give this team a fighting chance this year.  Removing Hall and Suppan from the books after next year will be a huge relief for the payroll.

 

Or half year.  They could trade him mid-season depending on how things go. 

TheDude:

well, he could go to 90-95 and still make some good coin.

 

In 2008 the Brewers had a 95 million payroll.  That put them in the red, but the playoffs got them out of the red.   With this new TV deal I really think even if they get 5 million more in TV revenue they could go to a 100 million payroll. 

I wasn't making stuff up when I said the Brewers could sustain a 100 million payroll.   The TV deal makes the difference.  Still waiting for details on it.  They haven't released any yet.

Wow that looks sad with Supan's name on top.

Einsteinhood:

From what they said, they plan all of that when they look at an opening day payroll, and then leave open the option of adding serious payroll should the need/opportunity arise.

 

 

Agree 100%.

Mark A is a good business man.

brewerfanx1:

I wasn't making stuff up when I said the Brewers could sustain a 100 million payroll.   The TV deal makes the difference.  Still waiting for details on it.  They haven't released any yet.

That wasn't my point; to infer that you're making it up.  I agree that to go to 100 mil, Mark A probably wouldn't be making much profit.  That's why I think if he goes to 95 he'll still pocket 5-ish million.

Now before people start countering these numbers, they're quite the rough estimate, and the whole point was that I believe an 80-85mil payroll is actually on the lowend. If Mark A wants to win in the next two years, I can see him logically upping the payroll and still be in financially good health.

TheDude:

brewerfanx1:

I wasn't making stuff up when I said the Brewers could sustain a 100 million payroll.   The TV deal makes the difference.  Still waiting for details on it.  They haven't released any yet.

That wasn't my point; to infer that you're making it up.  I agree that to go to 100 mil, Mark A probably wouldn't be making much profit.  That's why I think if he goes to 95 he'll still pocket 5-ish million.

Now before people start countering these numbers, they're quite the rough estimate, and the whole point was that I believe an 80-85mil payroll is actually on the lowend. If Mark A wants to win in the next two years, I can see him logically upping the payroll and still be in financially good health.

 

I know.  I was making a general statement.  

Agree with you.